Canadian inflation fell in June, setting the stage for BoC rate cut

Inflation unexpectedly slipped 0.1% (not seasonally adjusted) in June, following a 0.6% increase in May. This was the first decline in six months. The monthly decrease was driven by lower prices for travel tours (-11.1%) and gasoline (-3.1%).

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year over year in June, down from a 2.9% gain in May. The deceleration was mainly due to slower year-over-year growth in gasoline prices, which rose 0.4% in June following a 5.6% increase in May. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.8% in June.

Lower prices for durable goods (-1.8%) y/y also contributed to the slowdown in the all-items CPI in June, following a 0.8% decline in May. An increase in prices for food purchased from stores (+2.1%) moderated the deceleration, as well as a smaller decline for cellular services in June (-12.8%) compared with May (-19.4%).

The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation, the trim and median core rates, exclude the more volatile price movements to assess the level of underlying inflation. The CPI trim was unchanged in June at 2.9%, above the market’s expectation of 2.8%. The CPI median fell two ticks to 2.6%.

The third chart below shows the 3- and 6-month moving averages for the average of median and trim CPI measured as an annualized percentage change. While the 3-month moving average has accelerated to about 3%, the 6–month measure has fallen to just over 2%.

Bottom Line

Today’s inflation reading is good news for the Bank of Canada, giving them leeway to cut interest rates next week. June marks the sixth consecutive month that the headline yearly inflation rate has been within the BoC’s target range, bringing the annual pace of price pressures back to its weakest levels since 2021.

Today’s inflation data will give the central bank confidence that the May rise in inflation was temporary. Annual inflation will reach the Bank’s 2% target by some time next year. This opens the way for the Bank to cut the overnight rate on July 24 by 25 bps to 4.5%.

According to Bloomberg News, traders in overnight swaps increased their bets that the Bank of Canada would cut rates next Wednesday, putting the odds at about 90% compared with 80% before the release.

Yesterday’s business and consumer outlook surveys point towards slowing growth in firms’ input and selling prices amid a weaker economic backdrop. Inflation expectations fell in June and are now in the BoC’s target range. Businesses are expecting weaker soft demand. The unemployment rate is trending higher, and the share of firms reporting labour shortages is near a record low. Companies’ expectations for wage increases over the next year have slowed. Overall, capacity constraints “have returned close to their historical average.”

The central bank flagged that consumer survey respondents still think domestic factors, including fiscal policy and elevated housing costs, are “contributing to high inflation.” Home-buying intentions are near historical averages, the bank said, and are supported by “strong plans” among newcomers to buy homes.

Another rate cut is coming next week, which will help to spur housing activity.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

5 Tips to Manage Financial Stress.

With the continued rise of inflation, interest rates and the overall cost of living, the uncertainty can be unnerving for many individuals. But don’t fret! We have some tips and suggestions to help you manage your financial stress and help you to power through these latest economic changes:

1. Prioritize What You Can Control: It can be easy to feel like you have no control over your financial situation, especially with the economy in flux. However, dwelling on things you cannot fix will only cause more stress. Instead, we recommend focusing on what you CAN control within your situation. For instance, take a looking at your phone bill and services to see if you can reduce the cost (even temporarily), reviewing your grocery bill and looking for places to switch to cheaper brands or alternatives, perhaps buying in bulk. You’ll not only save money, but you will feel like you have more control and help reduce stress.
2. Pay Essential Bills: If you are struggling to pay your monthly bills, prioritizing them can help you gain some control. Knowing which bills are most important to pay first can help reduce anxiety as you’re not scrambling to decide what to do. In some cases, prioritizing your bills can also help you uncover unnecessary spending and you may find something that can be eliminated entirely (even temporarily).
   
3. Automate Payments and Savings: If you’re struggling to keep up with your bills and payments, or are finding that you keep saying you’ll save money, but aren’t, considering automation for your finances can be a step in the right direction. Ensuring that your bills are paid on time will help reduce stress and protect you from wasting money on penalties for missed payments. Alternatively, you can also set up automatic money transfers on the days you are paid to move funds into a separate, savings account before you even see it. Thereby, reducing the likelihood that you’ll skip on adding to your savings that month or use that money elsewhere.
   
4. Find Ways to Earn More Money: When cashflow is a problem and you are feeling the strain of trying to afford your current lifestyle, looking for ways to earn additional money can be a lifesaver! Consider part-time work for the weekends, consulting in your area of expertise or picking up extra hours at your current place of work. Now is also a great time to discuss with your manager if you are due for a raise.
   
5. Talk to Your Mortgage Professional: For most people, their mortgage is their largest monthly bill. If you are feeling the financial crunch, now is a great time to talk to your mortgage broker about potentially changing your payment schedule or even looking for a different mortgage product with better rates (ideally if you are at the end of your term). Do not hesitate to be honest about your situation and ask what your options are.

Regardless of where you find yourself financially, there are often many solutions to help reduce and resolve your stress and ensure that you have healthy monthly cashflow.

Weaker-than-expected Jobs Report Keeps Further BoC Rate Cuts In Play.

Canadian employment data, released today by Statistics Canada, showed a marked slowdown, which historically would have been a harbinger of recession. This cycle, immigration has augmented the growth of the labour force and consumer spending, forestalling a significant economic downturn. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada will continue to cut interest rates by at least 175 basis points through next year. Whether they do so at their next meeting on July 24 will depend on the June inflation data released on July 16.

Canada shed 1,400 jobs last month, following a 26,700 increase in May. Economists had been expecting a stronger showing. Monthly job gains have averaged around 30,000 in the past year, while labour force growth has been more than 50,000, causing the jobless rate to rise. Full-time jobs declined marginally while part-time work edged upward. Job losses in June were led by decreases in transportation and warehousing, information and recreation, and wholesale and retail trade.

Regionally, jobs decreased in Quebec but rose in New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Population growth isn’t likely to slow shortly, meaning that anything short of about a 45k employment gain will increase the jobless rate. The jobless rate rose to 6.4%, up two ticks from a month earlier and 1.6 percentage points above the July 2022 cycle low. It is also the highest level since 2017 (excluding the pandemic). The rising unemployment rate aligned with the Bank of Canada’s rhetoric that higher interest rates damaged the labour market and strengthened the case for further rate cuts to support the economy.

Total hours worked were down 0.4% in June. On a year-over-year basis, total hours worked were up 1.1%. Average hourly wages among employees increased 5.4% in June on a year-over-year basis, following growth of 5.1% in May (not seasonally adjusted). This won’t sit well with the central bank’s Governing Council, but they realize that wage inflation is a lagging economic indicator, and rapidly rising unemployment will ultimately dampen wage inflation.

The data were released at the same time as US payrolls, which showed hiring moderated in June and prior months were revised lower. This boosts the odds that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in the coming months. Fluctuations in the loonie are often driven by the difference between US and Canadian interest rates, owing to the two countries’ tight economic links.

Bottom Line

Traders in overnight swaps increased their bets that the Bank of Canada will cut borrowing costs again in July, putting the odds at around two-thirds, up from around 55% before the release.

In a speech last week, Macklem said it’s “not surprising” that wages are moderating more slowly than inflation because wages tend to lag the trend in job growth. He also said the unemployment rate could rise further, but a significant increase isn’t needed to get inflation back to the 2% target.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Proven Strategies To Lower Your Interest Rate.

Lowering your interest rate can save you money over the life of a loan or credit card. Here are some proven strategies to help you accomplish that:

1. Improve Your Credit Score: Lenders typically offer lower interest rates to borrowers with higher credit scores. Pay your bills on time, keep your credit card balances low, and avoid opening multiple new credit accounts to improve your credit score.
2. Negotiate with Your Current Lender: If you have a good payment history with your current lender, they may be willing to lower your interest rate rather than lose you as a customer. Contact them and inquire about any available rate reduction programs.
3. Shop Around: Don’t settle for the first offer you receive. Compare interest rates from multiple lenders to find the best deal. You can do this by obtaining quotes online or visiting different financial institutions in person. If you’re shopping for a mortgage, your DLC Mortgage Expert can help determine the best options for you!
4. Consider Refinancing: If you have a mortgage, auto loan, or personal loan with a high interest rate, consider refinancing to secure a lower rate. Keep in mind that refinancing often comes with fees, so be sure to calculate whether the potential savings outweigh the costs. Talk to your DLC Mortgage Expert about this today!
5. Increase Your Down Payment: When purchasing a home or car, a larger down payment can often result in a lower interest rate. Lenders see a higher down payment as a sign of financial stability, reducing the risk associated with lending to you.
6. Choose a Shorter Loan Term: Opting for a shorter loan term can sometimes result in a lower interest rate. While your monthly payments may be higher, you’ll pay less in interest over the life of the loan.
7. Consider a Balance Transfer: If you have high-interest credit card debt, transferring the balance to a card with a lower interest rate can save you money. Look for credit card offers with introductory 0% APR periods on balance transfers.
8. Demonstrate Stability: Lenders often consider factors such as employment history and income stability when determining interest rates. A steady job and consistent income can help you secure a lower rate.
9. Automatic Payments: Some lenders offer a small interest rate reduction if you sign up for automatic payments. This reduces the risk of missed payments, making you a more attractive borrower.

By implementing these strategies, you can potentially lower your interest rate and save money in the long run. Don’t forget to check with your DLC Mortgage Expert also about how to make your money work for you when it comes to your mortgage!